Global Warming Alert: Beware the ‘Modoki’

godzilla.jpgHead for the hills! There is yet another monster with a strange Japanese name that is threatening destruction of our coastal cities! No, it is not Godzilla or Rodan. This is a much more destructive monster, at least in the fervid imaginations of the global warming alarmists: "Modoki."

The warning about a possible Modoki attack was sounded by Doyle Rice in the Science Fair section of USA Today:

Global warming could have a dramatic effect on El Niño, the periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns and calms Atlantic hurricane seasons, according to a new study published this week in the journal Nature.

Specifically, the warming might help spur the development of a secondary El Niño, one which forms thousands of miles to the west in the central Pacific Ocean, near the International Date Line. Unlike its kin to the east, the central Pacific El Niño appears to cause more Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.

"Could" and "might." Two vitally important words when writing any global warming story based primarily on sheer speculation.

“There are two El Niños, or flavors of El Niño,” said Ben Kirtman, co-author of the study and professor at the University of Miami. “In addition to the eastern Pacific El Niño which we know and love, a second El Niño in the central Pacific is on the increase.”

And now, ladies and gentlemen, before I tell you any more, I’m going to show you the greatest thing your eyes have ever beheld. He was a king and a god in the world he knew, but now he comes to civilization merely a captive – a show to gratify your curiosity. Ladies and gentlemen, look at Modoki, the Eighth Wonder of the World:

Scientists have dubbed the new phenomenon El Niño “Modoki” (the Japanese word "modoki" refers to something that is "similar but different"). It has been blamed for worsening drought conditions in Australia and India.

Of the 11 climate models the scientists used in the research, eight showed that global warming will lead to more central Pacific El Niños. Over the past 20 years, according to the data, the frequency of El Niño Modokis have increased from one out of five to half of all El Niños. By 2100, researchers predict that they will occur five times more often.

Additionally, the study reports that an increase in central Pacific El Niño events may also reduce the huricane-shielding effects of the traditional eastern Pacific event.

"May." Closely related to "might" which is a key ingredient to most global warming stories. May we have an encore for "may?"

"The results described in this paper indicate that the global impacts of El Niño may significantly change as the climate warms," said study lead author Sang-Wook Yeh of the Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute.

Commenter NucEngineer beautifully takes a contrary view to this global warming Modoki alarm:

The worst flaw in the AGW argument is the treatment of GCM computer generated outputs as data. They then use it in follow on hypotheses. For example, if temperature rises by X degrees in 50 years, then Y will be effected in such-and-such a way resulting in Z. Then the next person comes along and says, well, if Z happens, the effect on W will be a catastrophe. “I need (and deserve) more money to study the effects on W.” Hypotheses, stacked on hypotheses, stacked on more hypotheses, all based on computer outputs that are not data, using a process that does not lend to proof using the SCIENTIFIC METHOD. Look at their results, IF, MIGHT, and COULD are used throughout their news making results. And when one of the underlying hypotheses is proven incorrect, well, the public only remembers the doomsday results 2 or three iterations down the hypotheses train. The hypotheses downstream are not automatically thrown out and can even be used for more follow on hypotheses.

Yup! "Could," "if," "might" are certainly integral words of almost all global warming scare stories. Those words pop up so frequently that I suggest that a new mineral rock be named after them: "couldifmite." The unique charactertic of couldifmite would be that it can heat up merely by the thought waves of any global warming alarmist in its vicinity.

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